Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-13 0.127982 0.150634 0.177064 0.210417 0.251717 0.301615 3.671285e-01
2025-07-20 0.102672 0.131311 0.168362 0.220693 0.294157 0.395887 5.515615e-01
2025-07-27 0.085343 0.117236 0.162409 0.233102 0.344887 0.522120 8.405628e-01
2025-08-03 0.071011 0.103875 0.154350 0.241209 0.395215 0.674998 1.271396e+00
2025-08-10 0.057939 0.089407 0.141241 0.238319 0.429645 0.826041 1.832559e+00
2025-08-17 0.046903 0.075734 0.126170 0.227965 0.448931 0.967752 2.539758e+00
2025-08-24 0.040210 0.067932 0.119474 0.231899 0.502574 1.233649 3.969254e+00
2025-08-31 0.034810 0.061283 0.113346 0.235571 0.561228 1.576468 6.370603e+00
2025-09-07 0.030552 0.055888 0.108421 0.240809 0.631035 2.044240 1.073218e+01
2025-09-14 0.027032 0.051221 0.103904 0.245942 0.708317 2.663001 1.886089e+01
2025-09-21 0.023517 0.045860 0.096537 0.241158 0.754311 3.251591 3.116493e+01
2025-09-28 0.019146 0.037877 0.081238 0.208628 0.681431 3.164176 3.620366e+01
2025-10-05 0.017084 0.034786 0.077491 0.210654 0.753758 4.119884 7.209376e+01
2025-10-12 0.015649 0.032854 0.076240 0.220652 0.875956 5.830786 1.850422e+02
2025-10-19 0.014451 0.031255 0.075514 0.232801 1.030217 8.549163 6.093961e+02
2025-10-26 0.013251 0.029421 0.073691 0.240672 1.180373 12.253192 2.499115e+03
2025-11-02 0.011910 0.026982 0.069504 0.237608 1.267429 15.992197 1.107184e+04
2025-11-09 0.010581 0.024346 0.064095 0.227149 1.296723 19.329092 5.660675e+04
2025-11-16 0.009750 0.022899 0.062065 0.230945 1.448886 27.634566 3.739699e+06
2025-11-23 0.009012 0.021578 0.060122 0.234497 1.615998 40.147123 NaN
2025-11-30 0.008386 0.020461 0.058592 0.239620 1.820429 60.901266 NaN
2025-12-07 0.007825 0.019437 0.057133 0.244648 2.049173 94.894656 NaN
2025-12-14 0.007184 0.018076 0.054149 0.239835 2.162299 130.664209 NaN